Paul Nusca – Salesperson at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
Each Executive Summary Report is for a specific TRREB zone combination and includes a map of the included zones and a 4 page summary for each property type (detached, semi-detached, townhomes, condos)
The Information / statistics you can find in each Executive Summary Report include:
As illustrated in the above chart, the Government of Canada 5-Year Bond Yields increased by 45 basis points (0.45%) from September 14th through October 15th (at time of writing).
Why does this matter? 5-year fixed mortgage rates typically follow the 5-year Bond Yields which is the market’s view/prediction of where the Bank of Canada key interest rate will be in the future. Given how fast bond yields have increased, not all lenders have passed along the full extent of this increase to their 5-year fixed rates….yet. If yields remain elevated, expect this gap among lenders to be very short lived.
Where do things go from here? While we are likely to see 5-year fixed mortgage rates “catch up” to the increase in bond yields, we expect any further increases to be minimal over the medium term. Why? So far, the increase in bond yields is based on the general outlook that the economy is recovering, inflation is rising, and the US & Canada are ready to start tapering (removing) their massive bond purchases which was providing unprecedented support to financial markets and the economy. Will all this ultimately lead to the Bank of Canada increasing their interest rates in 2022? Maybe — but there are potential headwinds on the horizon:
Variable Rate Update – as variable rates are linked to a Lenders’/Banks’ Prime Lending Rate, any interest rate movement by the Bank of Canada typically results in an immediate change to variable rates. Based on the most recent outlook, the Bank of Canada has signaled the earliest it would increase its rate would be “the second half of 2022”.
As illustrated by the below chart, variable rates are currently priced around Prime -1.00% (or better in many cases). This represents an extremely good discount to Prime when viewed on a historical basis. If you or your client are considering fixed vs. variable, please contact a member of the Outline team to receive a customized analysis comparing the potential interest cost/savings of each option.
Similar to last month, rather than trying to cover all stats, we’ve focused on sales, new listings, and inventory. Why? Given the extremely low number of listings currently on the market, it may set the stage for a very interesting (and competitive) fall market when (or if) it finally gets started!
For a more comprehensive analysis including average prices, please refer to the 100+ TRREB reports section for direct access to detailed reports on over 38 different TRREB combinations, or click on the above section to view the accompanying slides & video.